basketball-men-d1 flag

Daniel Wilco | krikya89.com | April 9, 2019

Only 0.3 percent of people picked this championship game. Here’s who they said would win

Virginia's Tony Bennett loose ahead of title tilt

After 62 games in the 2019 NCAA tournament, there's just one left: Texas Tech vs. Virginia, for the national championship Monday night.

If you predicted that matchup, hats off to you. You’d be one of just 0.3 percent of the millions of brackets entered into our Bracket Challenge Game that correctly guessed the two teams that would make it to the title bout.

That's a lot bigger than the 0.02 percent that predicted the Final Four correctly, but it's still an impressively small number.

Of the minuscule group that called this year's championship matchup, 60.7 percent picked the Cavaliers to win the title, while 39.3 went with the Red Raiders.

Among all completed brackets this year, only 5.9 percent of all brackets picked Virginia to win the tournament — making the Cavaliers the fourth-most popular pick this year.

Just 0.7 percent picked Texas Tech, putting them in 12th place.

Rank Team Percent picked to win champ
1 Duke 39.7%
2 North Carolina 15.8%
3 Gonzaga 11.7%
4 Virginia 5.9%
5 Kentucky 5.0%
6 Mich. St. 4.7%
7 Tennessee 4.3%
8 Michigan 3.3%
9 Kansas 0.9%
10 Villanova 0.8%
11 Houston 0.8%
12 Texas Tech 0.7%
13 Purdue 0.7%
14 LSU 0.6%
15 Auburn 0.5%

With just one game left, this also means that only two brackets in our Bracket Challenge Game have the chance to win the whole competition.

Currently, “” (which picked Texas Tech to win) sits in first place with 147 points. Right behind, is “” (which picked Virginia) with 146 points. 

The BCG leaderboard heading into the championship game

For reference, the average point total among completed brackets is currently 70.3, and a perfect bracket through five rounds would sit at 160 points, so those scores are extremely impressive.

Speaking of perfect brackets, the briefly famous “” bracket — which was perfect through the first 49 games of the tournament — finishes the tournament with 92 points, going 5-for-14 after his perfect run ended. That puts him in the 93rd percentile, with no points remaining. Oh "center road", we hardly knew ye.

History of 3 seeds vs. 14 seeds in March Madness

The 14-3 March Madness upset is rare, but it happens enough that we shouldn't be shocked when it does. Here's the history of No. 14 seeds vs. No. 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
READ MORE

5 NCAA bracket tips learned from studying every Bracket Challenge Game winner since 2015

We looked at every winning NCAA bracket since 2015 to find what it was that helped the likes of mjbrewer and KELSEY 2017 beat out millions of other March Madness prognosticators.
READ MORE

Duke is new No. 1 overall seed in latest 2026 March Madness bracket predictions

Three weeks to Selection Sunday, Andy Katz delivers his updated bracket predictions after a packed weekend of men's hoops.
READ MORE
Division I
Men's Basketball Championship
April 4 & 6, 2026
Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN